Team McCallum

R&D for Lifetime of Life

Influenza fate.

Dr David M Morens and two other experts from the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases have concluded that the likeliest fate for pandemic H1N1 flu is that it will die out over time, due to high numbers of people with existing immunity.

However, their paper in the  journal mBio makes it clear that they cannot be certain of this as various pathways exist for the strain to alter its composition, in the same manner that seasonal H1N1 influenza does.

Dr Morens calculates that around 20% of the population of the US had some degree of immunity to pandemic H1N1 (swine flu) before the 2009/10 pandemic, due to similarities in prior infections that affect those aged 55 and over. He also calculates that the figure has now risen to nearly 60%.

In the US, over 99% of flu in the 2009/10 season was pandemic H1N1. The current influenza vaccine contains pandemic H1N1 as one of its 3 components, based on World Health Organization recommendations.

Dr Morens finding of residual protection in older people explains why the youngest were hardest hit in the last flu season, and possibly explains why the pandemic of 1918, another H1N1 strain, was a killer of young people rather than the old.

In the US, the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) is recommending vaccination for everyone over 6 months of age.

In the UK it is now advised that pregnant women should be inoculated, along with those aged over 65.


September 30, 2010 - Posted by | David M Morens, H1N1, Health, Influenza, Pregnancy, Success, Vaccine

1 Comment »

  1. […] Leer completo en: Influenza fate. […]

    Pingback by Influenza fate. | Todo sobre la Influenza AH1N1 | All About Influenza | September 30, 2010 | Reply

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